London (AFP) – Beleaguered British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will fight for his political future on Wednesdayafter two senior cabinet ministers They withdrew from their jobs and a series of junior ministers resigned after months of political chaos.
Many opponents, including those within his Conservative Party, have publicly called on Johnson to leave. But he has shown no sign of resigning, and it may be up to a small but powerful group of conservatives known as the 1922 Committee to oust him before the next general election.
Here’s a look at how that happens:
Is it possible to vote without trust?
Technically, not for another 11 months.
A vote of no-confidence is held if 15% of Conservative lawmakers—currently 54—write to Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee, to request it.
Johnson survived the June 6 confidence vote, Although the scale of the rebellion – 41% of its deputies voted against it – left its future in doubt.
Under current party rules, a year must pass before another formal leadership challenge can occur.
But the 1922 commission has the power to change the rules to allow a new vote of confidence sooner.
What is the 1922 commission?
The 1922 Committee is a group of about a dozen Conservative MPs – lawmakers who do not hold a government office – who meet regularly to discuss party affairs. It meets monthly with the party leader to represent the views of the rank and file within the party.
Crucially, the group defines the rules under which the incumbent leader can be challenged.
The commission was named because a group of legislators elected in 1922 formed it—albeit in 1923.
Its members are elected by all members of the Conservative Party, and the committee is due to elect a new executive committee within the coming weeks.
How likely are the rules to change?
This goes back to the 1922 Executive Committee. Some news reports indicate that the decision may come later on Wednesday, when the Executive meets.
Or the committee may wait a few weeks for its new CEO to be elected. Several conservative lawmakers said they would nominate the committee and vote to change the rule if elected.
Bob Blackman, the committee’s joint executive secretary, said Wednesday that he believes a “very high threshold” must be reached to justify a vote of confidence shortly after last month’s vote.
“What we definitely have to do is to be quiet here, because one of the other suggestions that are being made… is to reduce the time frame to six months. Six months takes you to the beginning of December,” he told TalkTV.
“In my view, you would have to have a really very high threshold to justify a vote of confidence too soon after the previous vote of confidence,” he said.
What if Johnson loses a vote of confidence?
Johnson would need 180 of the 359 Conservative members of Congress to support him if a vote of confidence is passed.
If he loses, he will resign and a party leadership contest will be held where he will be barred from running. The party leader and prime minister will remain until a replacement is chosen.
Any Conservative lawmaker is eligible to run to replace Johnson as party leader. The winner of the leadership race becomes Conservative Party leader and prime minister, without the need for a national election.
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