September 30, 2022

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is in full swing, most meteorologists predict Another active season Like the last two years. There are a few things that really caught my attention. However, is there anything unusual or out of the ordinary in the season so far? Let’s explore this question from two different perspectives.

The next storm will be called “Daniel”. Is it extraordinarily early for Storm C (Colin) by the 4th of July? yes. according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)The third, usually named storm, is not expected until around August 3. In fact, the second named storm of the year, from a climate lens, doesn’t usually occur until around July 17. In the Atlantic basin, the first hurricane is usually expected around August 11. From this perspective, the season is an early start compared to the climatology of the last 30 years.

As I write this, the tropical Atlantic basin is rather calm. According to NOAA, the outbreak of desert dust is hampering any significant development. However, there is something else a bit unnatural according to a tropical meteorologist Dr. Michael FentressMeteorological software engineer DFW. He told me in a message, “The biggest anomaly I see now is abnormally hot water in the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a pocket of 30°C + ocean temperatures.” This is really hot water for this time of year. In addition, the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are typical breeding grounds for tropical cyclones in the early part of the season. “If you remove the atmosphere from the equation, this ocean condition enhances the risk of tropical cyclones that are rapidly increasing before making landfall across the Gulf states,” Ventris went on to say.

Dr. Ventress also pointed out something about the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is explained in this article. Link. He said, “The suppressed phase of the MJO will spread over Africa and the Indian Ocean over the next few weeks, calming the Atlantic basin.” However, he cautioned that there are indications that the active phase of the MJO could decline across Africa and the Indian Ocean during the first half of August. He warned that “this could lead to an outburst of Atlantic hurricane activity during the second and third week of August.”

Stu Ostro He is the chief meteorologist for The Weather Channel. He’s also noticed some curious peculiarities this season, but said there’s nothing to jump to as being particularly important in meteorology. He noted that both Alex and Bonnie had been classified as probable tropical cyclones (PTC) for an especially long time before they were named. PTC mapping is a relatively new tool that the National Hurricane Center uses to initiate risk communication. Ostrow also noted that Bonnie kept her trading low, and thus was named as she crossed into the Pacific.

Ostrow was one of the first meteorologists to capture “Cullen” before it was given its name near coastal Carolina and Georgia. It was a fast circulating system near the warm Gulf Stream which could certainly happen. I saw a few meteorologists on social media complaining about the storm receiving a name because it wasn’t causing “headline winds”, but I think it was justified. Notice the meteorological broadcast Richard “Heatwave” Perler He made an excellent point when he tweeted that the satellite scatterometer data was important in helping to stabilize storm rotation in Tropical Storm Colin. With so many people on the coast this 4th of July weekend, naming the storm, in my view, helped send messages of dangerous currents and other dangers.

Ostrow raises another important point. He sent a message, “PTCs are a relatively new designation (if they have always existed, have there been many other similar instances?); transitions from the Caribbean to the eastern Pacific have occurred before; and there have been other rapid introductions near the coast southeast (and whether designating 96L as Tropical Storm Colin implies at least some human subjectivity).” Ostrow also added a little weather information to his message, and said, “The main thing that caught my eye in terms of meteorology was how the African waves were Easter (AEWs) are active for a while from Africa across the tropical Atlantic very early in the season.”

Hurricane expert at the University of Miami Brian McNoldy He pointed out this strangeness. He wrote: “Agatha went from the Pacific and fixed up in the Atlantic like Alex. Then Bonnie went out of the Atlantic and stayed intact to keep Bonnie in the Pacific.” He went on to add that “crossovers are not very common to begin with, so having both types occur almost immediately in the season is very strange.”

Bonnie was also a bit unique in how far it formed and followed south before crossing into the Pacific Ocean. The storm washed away northern parts of South America before affecting Central America. Stu Ostrow came back to me again and said, “This is obviously the first time the (Bonnie system) has been a tropical storm on the Atlantic/Caribbean side and then turned into a hurricane over the Pacific, let alone a Cat 3.” What to read in this anomaly By saying, “So I suppose this gives Bonnie a ‘weird’ nature, though I’m still not sure if there’s more to read versus it being interesting but random.”

I suspect Andy Hazleton It probably captures the big picture that many of the above experts also hinted at. Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami and NOAA’s Department of Hurricane Research, wrote, “I wish I could give you something interesting but frankly nothing jumps in at me. A beautiful (and now lull) climate model evolution so far.” My own interpretation is that there were some quirks and early activity but nothing off limits from what the experts saw. However, it would be irresponsible for me to ignore that climate change is definitely associated with rising sea surface temperatures (see Ventrice’s comment earlier). We’ve also had two of the most active hurricane seasons ever (2020 and 2021). My point here is to point out that the natural variance and “newness” bias during the satellite in naming occasional fast storms or smaller storms are real things. However, neither of these two matters refutes the literature that c . DNAChange in fauna is now likely to affect tropical cyclone activity.

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